Helping you get up to scratch with your current affairs.

Tuesday 27 August 2013

Syria: Is military intervention the answer?

The brewing cauldron of the Syrian civil war overspilled last week after  a chemical attack in the capital, Damascus, killed over 300 people.  With the US earlier stating that the use of chemical weapons would be crossing a red line, is this event enough to prompt military intervention from the West?

Yes.
Supporters include Ex Prime Minister Tony Blair, US Senator John McCain.  France and Germany have voiced support.

Ethically we must intervene
The use of chemical weapons is prohibited under the Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC). Do we really want our children to grow up in a world where it is ok to use chemical weapons without fear of repercussions?   -  A great article devoted to this argument can be found here here

Syria's chemical capabilities are unknown
They did not sign the CWC so we do not know what weapons they have and their number.  If they are prepared to use them against their own country what is to prevent them from using them against other countries.

The government must be held accountable
It took the government nearly a week to allow UN inspectors to visit the site which enhances the argument that the attack was the work of the government.  Furthermore shots were fired at the inspectors from known government positions though this may have been rebels hoping to prompt the West into action.

Air strikes will not put our troops at risk
The most likely military intervention at this state would be guided missile strikes at military targets.  This would harm Al Assad and his regime hopefully prompting a change of tactics and the stepping down of Al Assad without any civilians coming to harm. 

No.
Those against include Iran, Russia, China

We are not the police of the world
We saw it with Iraq and with Afghanistan, little old UK throwing our weight in with the US but during the reformation of our forces we have reduced and reduced; we cannot afford another war.  Not only is our Regular Army suffering redundancies as it is cut to almost half the size it was during the cold war (82,000 by 2017) but recruitment into the reserves is failing to fill the gap.

Why waste lives of our soldiers on something that doesn't affect our country? ... again
How many British lives have been lost fighting the Middle East?  Does Syria pose a threat to our country? No. If we send in troops we are putting our own soldiers at risk - yes its their job but they sign up to protect and serve our country, not necessarily someone else's.

UN inspectors have been unable to conclusively prove which side is responsible for the attack
Its one things to intervene on ethical grounds but when you cannot prove that the side you are targeting was the perpetrator then you are ethically in the wrong.  It is impossible to prove that the government is responsible and the attack was not conducted by rebels attempting to gain support from the West.

It is unlikely to be backed by the UN
The five permanent member states (UK, US, France, China, Russia) all have the power to veto any resolution.  With Russia openly supporting the Syrian government and China joining them in warning the West against action not only is any response likely to be vetoes but acting without a mandate could end up with us inadvertently going to war with one of these two countries.

It may cause increased instability in the region
Syria is an important player in the Arab world, disruption here may threaten nearby countries as occurred during the Arab Spring in 2011.

No-one really wants to rebels to win.  The regime is doomed anyway.
Al Assad can only hang on for so long, with or without intervention.  Toppling the government through military means leaves an opportunity for a rebel faction to assume control of the country.   Control passing to one of the more radical factions would only worsen the country's situation both internally and globally;  one faction is being armed by Al Qaeda.  A political solution must be found involving the stepping down and replacement of Al Assad in a democratic way.

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Decide for yourself.  If you think I've missed any points off just comment and I'll do my best to cover any other (reasonable) arguments.

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